Volume 29, Issue 2-3, June 2025
HYDROLOGICAL SHIFTS IN THE CARPATHIAN BASIN: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SUMMER LOW-FLOWS
Authors: Igor Leščešen
Abstract: To assess hydrological shifts in the Carpathian Basin, this study analyzes a 90-year summer minimum discharge dataset from 12 river stations. We reveal widespread, significant declines, with the most pronounced trends on the Danube showing an average decrease of (-8.9% per decade). Critically, we identify a systemic regime shift using Pettitt tests, with most changepoints occurring between 1968-1990. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) regionalize these trends into two clusters: a high-variability group (Danube/Sava) and a vulnerable, low-flow group (Tisza/Drava). These findings prove the region’s growing drought vulnerability and highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management.
Keywords: hydrological trends, climate change impacts, Carpathian Basin, low-flow regimes, regionalization
Article info:
Received: February 27, 2025| Revised: June 17, 2025| Accepted: June 19, 2025